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Post by zou on Jun 23, 2024 21:04:00 GMT
In our constituency the Labour candidate is ahead in the opinion polls. She must be crapping herself that she might overturn the 29000 majority of the Tory incumbent. There's a huge difference between southeast London and rural Wiltshire. So much more potential for expense claims. Renting a constituency home, office, travel, etc. |
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Post by spinno on Jun 23, 2024 21:04:16 GMT
In our constituency the Labour candidate is ahead in the opinion polls. She must be crapping herself that she might overturn the 29000 majority of the Tory incumbent. There's a huge difference between southeast London and rural Wiltshire. Different is good, just ask Keir |
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Post by zou on Jun 23, 2024 21:05:44 GMT
In our constituency the Labour candidate is ahead in the opinion polls. She must be crapping herself that she might overturn the 29000 majority of the Tory incumbent. There's a huge difference between southeast London and rural Wiltshire. Different is good, just ask Keir Ask him twice, you'll get different answers. |
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Post by peterba on Jun 23, 2024 21:05:56 GMT
Had my first electioneering encounter today. Opened the door to a young Labour campaigner with a Douglas Alexander leaflet. "Not a chance in hell" and door shut. Only opened because I saw someone in red through the frosted glass and assumed it was the postie. Still no other campaigning leaflets through the letterbox yet.
We had a nice LibDem woman knock at the door, a few months ago (prior to the election period), and we had a good discussion on various political topics. No-one has knocked since the election announcement.
As a general principle, anyone at our door representing a party to the Left of the Tory Party will get a welcome, a generous hearing, and possibly even a useful and interesting discussion. I'm not particularly interested in personalities... only in the alignment of a party.
By contrast, anyone coming to our door representing the Tories or from Reform, will probably wish they hadn't bothered. |
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Post by spinno on Jun 23, 2024 21:08:43 GMT
Different is good, just ask Keir Ask him twice, you'll get different answers. It's the same answer just put in a different way |
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Post by zou on Jun 23, 2024 21:53:46 GMT
Ask him twice, you'll get different answers. It's the same answer just put in a different way Will 'x' be in your manifesto Keir? -Yes Really, the Tories think that's bad -Obviously the harsh reality is difficult decisions need to be made and that's why, whilst we favour measures such as 'x', now is not the time to bring it forward |
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Post by mick on Jun 24, 2024 7:06:16 GMT
In common with others, I thought I'd place a bet 
I hope I've got this right.The Libdems are 4/7 and the Tories 2/1 in my patch. If I understand, that means that the bookies think that the Tories will hold the seat. That amazes me. I think that the Libdems will win here. Remember, you heard it here!
Mick
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Post by zou on Jun 24, 2024 7:28:21 GMT
In common with others, I thought I'd place a bet
I hope I've got this right.The Libdems are 4/7 and the Tories 2/1 in my patch. If I understand, that means that the bookies think that the Tories will hold the seat. That amazes me. I think that the Libdems will win here. Remember, you heard it here!
Mick
I'm not into gambling at all but surely that means a £7 stake only wins £4 if LDs win, versus a £7 stake wins £14 if Tories win. Ergo, they think LDs will win? |
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Post by mick on Jun 24, 2024 7:46:27 GMT
In common with others, I thought I'd place a bet
I hope I've got this right.The Libdems are 4/7 and the Tories 2/1 in my patch. If I understand, that means that the bookies think that the Tories will hold the seat. That amazes me. I think that the Libdems will win here. Remember, you heard it here!
Mick
I'm not into gambling at all but surely that means a £7 stake only wins £4 if LDs win, versus a £7 stake wins £14 if Tories win. Ergo, they think LDs will win? I thought that it was the opposite! Can you tell I'm not into gambling?
Mick
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Post by spinno on Jun 24, 2024 7:50:24 GMT
In common with others, I thought I'd place a bet
I hope I've got this right.The Libdems are 4/7 and the Tories 2/1 in my patch. If I understand, that means that the bookies think that the Tories will hold the seat. That amazes me. I think that the Libdems will win here. Remember, you heard it here!
Mick
No the Tories are not favourites in this scenario. In bookie's odds if the first number is smaller than the second number (4/7) then it's 'odds on' whereas (2/1) is usually the price in a two horse race, I would imagine odds for Labour would be about (10/1) and Reform (7/1). But I am no bookie more of a wookie eating a cookie and not getting any n |
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Post by mick on Jun 24, 2024 7:53:43 GMT
Thanks.
Labour are 20/1 and Reform 100/1
Mick
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Post by spinno on Jun 24, 2024 7:57:49 GMT
Thanks. Labour are 20/1 and Reform 100/1 Mick Blimey, really is a two horse race. |
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Post by dreampolice on Jun 24, 2024 7:59:39 GMT
Bookies odds have always confused me. Not that I am a gambler so have no real interest other than when I see or hear odds mentioned. I have only been in a bookies once and that was around 1986 to place a bet on the National. I walked in, didn't have a clue what to do, couldn't see through the smoke, felt quite intimidated and turned around and walked out. I have never attempted to place a bet since!
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Post by spinno on Jun 24, 2024 8:01:58 GMT
Bookies odds have always confused me. Not that I am a gambler so have no real interest other than when I see or hear odds mentioned. I have only been in a bookies once and that was around 1986 to place a bet on the National. I walked in, didn't have a clue what to do, couldn't see through the smoke, felt quite intimidated and turned around and walked out. I have never attempted to place a bet since! Not so smokey in there anymore |
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Post by aitch on Jun 24, 2024 8:27:06 GMT
I'm not into gambling at all but surely that means a £7 stake only wins £4 if LDs win, versus a £7 stake wins £14 if Tories win. Ergo, they think LDs will win? I thought that it was the opposite! Can you tell I'm not into gambling?
Mick
I think odds are calculated on what the betters are betting on, what they think will happen, not what the bookies think.
That's possibly why bookies rarely go broke...
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