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Post by andy on May 28, 2024 7:45:16 GMT
Yowza .. that's a crazy amount of dosh  ...... Geez, I'm angry and it's not even my money  . Also, does he, Sunak, have to call an election or does he just think he's doing well enough in the polls that he can get away with it? Cheers, Jack He's so far behind it's a possibility the Tories could end up losing up to 200 seats. But we know opinion polls are always inaccurate, but by how much is the big question. Similar story for the SNP round here with Labour expected to take most of their seats. 91% chance of them taking Midlothian apparently, for example. I find it quite amusing that folk on Facebook are posting pictures of blue passports and saying make the 4th July independence day. There's approximately 0% chance of that. |
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Post by peterba on May 28, 2024 8:42:29 GMT
Also, does he, Sunak, have to call an election or does he just think he's doing well enough in the polls that he can get away with it?
Technically, the latest that Parliament could have been dissolved was on the fifth anniversary of the day it first met. In this case, it would have been 17 December 2024. Then, there would then have been a six-week campaign period - meaning that he would have carried on until 28th January, at the very latest.
As to whether he thinks he can win... well, current polling shows the Tories trailing badly (on average, a deficit of more than 20 points). No-one seems to know why he called it now, but I've read a lot of insider tittle-tattle that says that's he's simply had enough. After a number of attempts to bolster his fortunes by announcing all sorts of daft gimmicks, the dial hasn't moved in his favour.
In the late 1970s, former PM James Callaghan said, "There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of.". As it happens, he too was around 20 points down, at the time - and went on to a heavy defeat.
It's quite possible - though, by no means certain - that this principle might apply to the current situation. We'll find out, in a few weeks.
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Post by don on May 28, 2024 9:32:30 GMT
Also, does he, Sunak, have to call an election or does he just think he's doing well enough in the polls that he can get away with it?
.
In the late 1970s, former PM James Callaghan said, "There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of.". As it happens, he too was around 20 points down, at the time - and went on to a heavy defeat.
It's quite possible - though, by no means certain - that this principle might apply to the current situation. We'll find out, in a few weeks.
I don’t think Rishi has a Hope of winning he just didn’t want to spoil Christmas by calling election later in the year |
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Post by andy on May 28, 2024 10:15:14 GMT
.
In the late 1970s, former PM James Callaghan said, "There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of.". As it happens, he too was around 20 points down, at the time - and went on to a heavy defeat.
It's quite possible - though, by no means certain - that this principle might apply to the current situation. We'll find out, in a few weeks.
I don’t think Rishi has a Hope of winning he just didn’t want to spoil Christmas by calling election later in the year I suspect the tories saw the downward trajectory on polling in recent months and are trying to limit losses. |
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Post by JohnY on May 28, 2024 10:17:34 GMT
Even if all the people who say they will vote reform have second thoughts and vote Conservative the Conservatives will still lose.
Only a big scandal involving Labour could save the Conservatives.
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Post by zou on May 28, 2024 10:37:32 GMT
I heard Rishi wanted to be able to move to California and settle by end of summer.
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Post by peterba on May 28, 2024 11:04:17 GMT
You mean - the Tories are dealing with a bigger bunch of rogues than themselves?
Let's not get carried away, John!  |
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Post by willien on May 28, 2024 11:59:38 GMT
The current government has plenty of them, Jack. For instance, the fact that they have shelled out £240m (and counting) to send one - that's right, ONE - asylum seeker to Rwanda. Fantastic value-for-money, ain't it? 
I can't help thinking that it would have been far better to have kept the poor bloke here - and retained the 240m. (On second thoughts, it's entirely possible that he might have been really pi$$ed off at being kept in this sad joint.)
Yowza .. that's a crazy amount of dosh ...... Geez, I'm angry and it's not even my money . Also, does he, Sunak, have to call an election or does he just think he's doing well enough in the polls that he can get away with it? Cheers, Jack UK Parliaments are for a maximum term so he had to call one fairly soon - cannot find the end date. He had been talking about the second half of the year then dropped his bombshell. The two theories are a) he recons things are only going to get worse so the longer he waited the worse his result and, b) he is so fed up he just wants out of No. 10 asap. |
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Post by peterba on May 28, 2024 12:23:08 GMT
cannot find the end date.
See my previous post but one, Willy.  |
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Post by JohnY on May 28, 2024 23:32:20 GMT
I heard Rishi wanted to be able to move to California and settle by end of summer. How do you know that? It's meant to be a secret. |
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Post by donerundlecams on May 29, 2024 4:15:29 GMT
Also, does he, Sunak, have to call an election or does he just think he's doing well enough in the polls that he can get away with it?
Technically, the latest that Parliament could have been dissolved was on the fifth anniversary of the day it first met. In this case, it would have been 17 December 2024. Then, there would then have been a six-week campaign period - meaning that he would have carried on until 28th January, at the very latest.
As to whether he thinks he can win... well, current polling shows the Tories trailing badly (on average, a deficit of more than 20 points). No-one seems to know why he called it now, but I've read a lot of insider tittle-tattle that says that's he's simply had enough. After a number of attempts to bolster his fortunes by announcing all sorts of daft gimmicks, the dial hasn't moved in his favour.
In the late 1970s, former PM James Callaghan said, "There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of.". As it happens, he too was around 20 points down, at the time - and went on to a heavy defeat.
It's quite possible - though, by no means certain - that this principle might apply to the current situation. We'll find out, in a few weeks.
Sounds like a few Canadian (federal) elections I can recall. One party has been in power for around ten years and even though they've done nothing (drastically) incorrect, the political tide has changed and out they go  Kind of like the election in which Justin Trudeau got elected, the party / leader previous, the (Progressive) Conservatives had pretty much decimated the science and arts programs and the party members had to get permission from the Prime Minister to comment on programmes and away he went. Politics in a pretty small world. Jack |
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Post by donerundlecams on May 29, 2024 4:19:03 GMT
Yowza .. that's a crazy amount of dosh ...... Geez, I'm angry and it's not even my money . Also, does he, Sunak, have to call an election or does he just think he's doing well enough in the polls that he can get away with it? Cheers, Jack UK Parliaments are for a maximum term so he had to call one fairly soon - cannot find the end date. He had been talking about the second half of the year then dropped his bombshell. The two theories are a) he recons things are only going to get worse so the longer he waited the worse his result and, b) he is so fed up he just wants out of No. 10 asap. " ....... he is so fed up he just wants out of No. 10 asap ..." So, what I think I see you typing, willie, is that he's, totally, unlike Boris Johnson (?) Jack |
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Post by zou on May 29, 2024 5:17:03 GMT
I heard Rishi wanted to be able to move to California and settle by end of summer. How do you know that? It's meant to be a secret. Shhhh! |
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Post by peterba on May 29, 2024 6:47:50 GMT
Politics in a pretty small world.
Indeed.  |
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Post by spinno on May 29, 2024 6:48:33 GMT
How do you know that? It's meant to be a secret. Shhhh! Don't tell him, Pike! |
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...... Geez, I'm angry and it's not even my money 
. 
Kind of like the election in which Justin Trudeau got elected, the party / leader previous, the (Progressive) Conservatives had pretty much decimated the science and arts programs and the party members had to get permission from the Prime Minister to comment on programmes 